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Don't Bet on a Regime Change in Iran

(Wall Street Journal) Con Coughlin - Unfortunately, the green protesters are no match for the mullahs' security infrastructure, personified by the Revolutionary Guard and the Basij militia. Rumors about the regime's death are very premature. The legitimacy of Ahmadinejad's government might be a constant source of discussion among Tehran's middle classes, but beyond the capital huge swathes of the country remain devoted to both his leadership and the principles of Khomeini's Islamic revolution. And they flocked to the city center in their hundreds of thousands to pay homage to the president. While the West is understandably intrigued by Iran's ongoing political turmoil, it would be a serious mistake to ease the international pressure on Tehran right now. Even if there were a change of government, there is no guarantee that the nuclear policy adopted by the reformers would be any different from the one pursued by the current government. Many of the leaders of the reform movement, such as former Presidents Mohammad Khatami and Ali Akbar Rafsanjani, were in power when the most significant advances were made in Iran's nuclear program. Tough sanctions would do more to intensify the pressure on Ahmadinejad and the hard-line conservatives to come to their senses than the well-intentioned, but mainly ineffectual, efforts of the green movement. The writer is executive foreign editor of the London Daily Telegraph.
2010-02-12 07:40:19
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