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U.S. Acts as Though It Seeks Regime Change in Israel

(Los Angeles Times) Aaron David Miller - Regime change generally is a term and tactic reserved for America's enemies. The administration's repeated calls for a settlements freeze - which neither Prime Minister Netanyahu nor his coalition can accept - raises the question of whether Washington is interested in bringing about a new and more pliable Israeli government. It wouldn't be the first time America meddled in Israeli politics. On at least two occasions I know well, the U.S. not only rooted for preferred candidates (always on the Labor side) but actively took steps to shape Israeli politics, and even electoral outcomes. In 1991, President George H.W. Bush and Secretary of State James A. Baker III purposely denied Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir housing loan guarantees because of his settlement policies - a move that directly contributed to his defeat by Yitzhak Rabin, who got those same guarantees a year later. In a more direct intervention, President Clinton, in an effort to shore up then-Prime Minister Shimon Peres, orchestrated a summit of Middle East peacemakers at Sharm el Sheik and a high-profile visit to Israel in March 1996. Peres, however, lost the election to Netanyahu in a squeaker. Yet it's not at all clear that a new government or Israeli leader would fix anything. Big gaps over core issues, such as Jerusalem, stand in the way of meaningful negotiations and peace with the Palestinians. Fundamental divisions between Hamas and Fatah on the Palestinian side, and a regional situation framed by Hizbullah, Hamas, and Iran, doesn't create an auspicious environment for big decisions. The Obama administration needs a strategy: Work with, not against, the current Israeli government and the Palestinians, and see how far you can get. Then if you reach an impasse or an agreement, let the natural ebb and flow of Israeli politics (and for that matter Palestinian politics) take its course. That would be better than where the administration seems to be headed: a no-win fight over settlements, the threat of pushing its own peace plan - or worse: too-clever-by-half meddling in Israeli politics. The writer, a public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, has advised both Democratic and Republican secretaries of state on Arab-Israeli negotiations.
2010-04-15 10:26:23
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