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Being Clear about Ambiguity

(Ha'aretz) Emily B. Landau - When the Egyptians demand that Israel join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, this has one meaning only, that Israel must relinquish its presumed nuclear weapons. The way the NPT is currently formulated, there simply is no other way for a state to join. The choice is to join as a non-nuclear weapon state or not to join at all. So, anyone who thinks that this suggestion/demand is merely about ending Israel's policy of "ambiguity," or increasing transparency, or bringing Israel closer to the global regime, is misguided and mistaken. It's a call for total and complete disarmament. In the current regional atmosphere - especially in light of an aggressive, nuclearizing Iran - this is not a realistic proposition. Israel's only purpose here is to establish effective deterrence against threats to its very survival. Secrecy generally serves that goal. All Israel needed was to create a degree of doubt. In fact, since nuclear deterrence depends on some information becoming available, absolute secrecy would actually have undermined the country's policy. Ending ambiguity will not result in Israel being accepted as an openly declared nuclear state, but will, rather, only contribute to mounting pressure for it to join the NPT - namely, to accept total disarmament. For Israel, nuclear ambiguity has served as an essential insurance policy for survival. With Israel not coming out in the open, Arab states did not feel unbearable pressure to respond in kind. The writer is director of the Arms Control and Regional Security Program at the Institute for National Security Studies, Tel Aviv University.
2010-05-14 08:38:41
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