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Iran's Nuclear Clock Is Not Slowing

(Atlantic Monthly) Gary Milhollin - The phrase that Iran's "nuclear clock has slowed" is now one of the Obama administration's favorites when arguing that Iran's progress toward nuclear-weapon capability has diminished, and that more time is available to convince Iran to change its ways. Sad to say, the assumption is false. The clock is still ticking, vigorously. By the beginning of this year, Iran had produced enough low-enriched uranium to fuel two nuclear weapons if the uranium were further enriched to weapon-grade. By now, Iran has added almost enough of this low-enriched uranium to fuel a third weapon, and by the middle of next year (at the current production rate), it will probably produce enough to fuel a fourth. To make matters worse, in February, Iran started to further enrich this uranium to a higher level, a level at which the Islamic Republic will have accomplished 90% of the work needed to raise its enrichment to weapon-grade. All this is happening at a time when Iran is successfully fielding ballistic missiles that can carry a nuclear payload far enough to reach Israel. But why quibble about how long the final phase of bomb making might take? Instead, we should keep our eyes on the big fact here, which is that Iran is fast approaching the status of a "virtual" nuclear weapon state - one with the ability to kick out UN inspectors and build a handful of nuclear warheads. We must confront the growth of Iran's nuclear capability, and not be lulled into imagining that it's not real. The writer is executive director of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control.
2010-08-23 08:15:26
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