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A New, Messier Mideast

[Los Angeles Times] Aaron David Miller - Even if the current crisis is resolved with an international force and a buffer zone that pushes Hizballah back from the border, far from giving birth to a new (and better) Middle East, we may find that we've created one even messier and nastier than the old. The current crisis is showing us just how effective Iran's reach can be. And Iran's inclination to meddle - mostly as a way of reminding the Sunni Arab world, Israel, and the U.S. that Tehran has cards to play and can inflict pain - will not go away. A second conclusion to be drawn from recent events has to do with the perils of unilateralism. In the Middle East, if you don't get for what you give, there will be no end to the pressure to give more. Israel's unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon in May 2000 and from Gaza in September 2005 may have benefited Israel politically (both domestically and around the world), but it also emboldened Hizballah and Hamas. That both groups continue to claim that they alone forced Israel out of Arab territory without agreements or reciprocity is more than just a talking point; it is a powerful inspiration to a younger generation of Arabs and Muslims looking for ways to counter their perceived humiliation at the hands of Israel and, by implication, the U.S. The fact that Israel felt the need to respond so forcefully to the July 12 Hizballah attack across its border is a clear indication of its own concern about the erosion of its deterrence and the perception of its weakness.
2006-08-07 01:00:00
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