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The Uprising in Egypt: An Initial Assessment

(Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University) Shmuel Even - While those close to the Egyptian regime enjoy a lavish lifestyle, the weaker classes stagger under the burden of the most basic subsistence and the middle class is disappearing. The price of basic foods is skyrocketing - in part because of the steep rise in food prices worldwide. This phenomenon is also a fundamental reason for the waves of protest in Tunisia, Yemen, and Algeria. The protests are popular in nature and do not seem to be directed by the Islamic opposition. The lack of a central organization responsible for the events makes it difficult for the regime to identify targets to suppress. At this point it seems that military forces are concerned with protecting government edifices rather than taking significant action to restore public order. The extensive presence of foreign media broadcasting directly from the scene makes it hard for the regime to act aggressively toward the protesters. Even if the regime succeeds in suppressing the uprising, it seems that Egypt will not be able to go back to what it was and that the Mubarak regime will end this year, one way or another. In any case, a weakened Egypt preoccupied with internal affairs portends poorly for the pragmatic camp supporting the political process and encourages the radical camp, intent on Israel's destruction. Still, the possibility that Egypt might pursue a new direction is no longer theoretical and Israel must consider the implications of the various possible scenarios.
2011-02-01 10:21:43
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