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Is Jordan Next?

(Ha'aretz) Oded Eran - Last week Jordan's King Abdullah II replaced Samir Rifai as prime minister with Marouf al-Bakhit, a general and former ambassador to Israel. Two-thirds of the population is of Palestinian origin, with Jordanian citizenship and the right to vote for and to be elected to both chambers of Parliament. But Palestinians account for fewer than 20% of members of Parliament, due to a less than fully democratic electoral system that has nonetheless helped to maintain a sense of democracy. Jordan's 100,000-strong army is all-Hashemite - that is, Bedouin - and is absolutely loyal to the king. Every opposition party or force in the country is well aware of that. Washington can amuse itself with demands for full democracy in Egypt. The stakes of embracing a similar position for Jordan are much higher. The U.S. should refrain from sending messages of encouragement to the Jordanian opposition. Iran, emboldened by its recent success in Lebanon and the collapse of the regime of Egypt's President Mubarak - an outspoken critic of Iran - is an obvious candidate, in cooperation with Syria, to meddle in Jordan. Israel has a clear interest in the territorial integrity of Jordan and the maintenance of its current political system. Any alternative is counterproductive to Israel's long-term interests. The writer is director of the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University and a former ambassador to Jordan.
2011-02-07 09:18:15
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