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U.S. and Israeli Concerns Over Egypt

(Washington Post) Aaron David Miller - By Israeli calculations, freedom in Egypt is bound to morph into venomous anti-Israeli attitudes and actions. Egypt's new leaders, whoever they are, will be beset by huge internal challenges, none of which could be diverted by confronting Israel. But there's no doubt that a new Egyptian government and president, more responsive to public opinion, will be far more critical of Israeli actions and policies. The inevitable hardening of Egyptian attitudes will not just constitute an Israeli problem but will pose significant concerns for Israel's major ally: the U.S. The old devil's bargain in which Washington relied on Cairo for support in its war and peacemaking policies, in exchange for giving Egypt a pass on how it is governed, is probably dead. On U.S. efforts to contain Iran, on the Middle East peace process, on the battle against terrorism and Islamic radicalism - especially if Egypt's own Islamists are part of the new governing structure - there is a great deal of uncertainty about how much cooperation we can expect. In this environment, to believe, as some analysts have argued, that any Israeli government would negotiate a conflict-ending agreement with the Palestinians to preempt further radicalization in the region is to believe in the peace-process tooth fairy.
2011-02-08 00:00:00
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