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2011: The Year of the (Bad) Initiative

(International Herald Tribune) Aaron David Miller - This is going to be a great year for Middle East peace initiatives, but likely a very bad one for Middle East peace. Driven by all kinds of motives to reach an agreement (except the right one), Israelis, Palestinians and Americans are considering various peace plans and proposals. None look terribly promising. There's a good chance that in coming months we'll see a lot of process but not much peace. The transformative changes now sweeping the Arab world have knocked everybody off balance, made bold decision-making more difficult, and sharpened divisions within the Arab, Palestinian and Israeli worlds over how to pursue serious peace-making. As far as President Obama is concerned, his failure to get serious negotiations launched between Israelis and Palestinians still rankles. Too much rhetoric early in the administration, an unwise call for a comprehensive settlement freeze, and too much faith in his own transformative power, have collided with reality. But he hasn't given up. Now, with big changes in the Arab world, there will be pressure to use peace-making to pre-empt radicalization, counter Iran (there's that linkage thing again), and to make good on his belief that Arab-Israeli peace is vital to American interests. The writer is a public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center.
2011-03-18 00:00:00
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