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Realpolitik in Libya

(Ha'aretz) Yehezkel Dror - The weight of realpolitik interests in deciding on intervention in Libya will not escape the eyes of Arab-Islamic observers. Europe has self-serving interests to stabilize Libya, specifically to prevent undesired refugees from flooding their borders. Libya's vast oil reserves also play a role. The absence of Western action against rulers of other Arab countries who repress civic revolts, when the West is interested in them staying in power, will also be noticed by the Arab-Islamic world. Even graver is the expected lesson Arab rulers will take from the Libya episode, that they need weapons to deter Western action. Gaddafi surely regrets having abandoned his nuclear weapons program. If he had weapons of mass destruction, or at least the perception that he had them, the West would have backed off. The action against Gaddafi will harden the will of Iran to develop nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, the transformation of Libya into a tranquil democratic state is far from assured. Surely there is no room for sympathy for Gaddafi, but it is far from clear that those taking his place will be less hostile.
2011-03-22 00:00:00
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