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The Calm Before the Storm

(Ha'aretz) Danny Rubinstein - * The impression one gets from the goings-on among the Palestinian public and leadership is that the question isn't whether the bloody clashes will start up again - but when. * Palestinian spokespersons called the prisoner release an insult. A second seed of trouble is the continuing construction of the separation fence. * In the political context, Abu Mazen is now declaring that in no uncertain terms is he willing to agree to a temporary arrangement or a state within temporary borders, as stipulated in the American road map plan. He wants a final settlement, and without delay. In other words, he is insisting, already now, on discussing issues over which it is impossible to reach an agreement - Jerusalem, the settlement blocs, borders, and refugees. * Abu Mazen is also saying that the current cease-fire is not the end of the intifada and that the nonviolent resistance will continue. * On this backdrop, one can estimate when the relative calm will end and the intifada will be renewed: following Israel's withdrawal from Gaza and the northern West Bank. * By then, a new Palestinian parliament will be in place, with significant representation for Hamas and other Palestinian opposition elements. The political horizon will then cloud over, and there won't be anything to look forward to.
2005-02-21 00:00:00
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