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Thinking the Unthinkable

Dennis Ross (US News) - * Nearly every Arab regime has ruled on the basis of coercion and intimidation. It was not just Saddam Hussein; our friends there have done so as well. They may have been less brutal than Saddam, but they, too, have been authoritarian, claiming that stability required it. * Regimes that have monopolized the power and wealth of their societies are unlikely to suddenly preside over their loss of both. Holding on to power may lead Arab leaders to make symbolic gestures on reform, designed to defuse the anger and show they are ready for change. * But make no mistake, if the Lebanese succeed in producing a stable government free of Syrian control and Hizballah coercion, every regime in the Middle East will wonder whether mere gestures can work and whether they can prevent more profound challenges to their survival. * The Bush administration needs to forge an agreed-upon common response with the Europeans and the Japanese on what they will do in the event of a crackdown or bloodbath in Lebanon or elsewhere. The certainty of collective condemnation, isolation, and sanctions needs to be made clear to regimes like Syria in advance of any crackdown, to convince these regimes that the cost of turning their armies on their people will be high. * Arab publics may be losing their fear of their regimes, and nothing has been more central to keeping those leaders in power than fear. If the fear is being eroded, this, far more than any election, will herald a new day in the Middle East.
2005-03-23 00:00:00
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