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Understanding Iran's Nuclear Agenda

(Brookings Institution) Daniel L. Byman - With regime change a dim hope, the possibility of an Iranian bomb requires the world to develop a coherent policy toward Iran's conservative-led government. As Geoffrey Kemp declares in "Iran's Bomb," a March 2004 Nixon Center report, Iran's bomb development could make it more aggressive, propel its neighbors to seek nuclear weapons, and enable terrorist groups to acquire them, too. Western options range from the poor to the abysmal. Military approaches are relatively easy to dismiss. Iran is simply too big to invade, and the United States is militarily overstretched and diplomatically unpopular even with its traditional allies because of the war in Iraq. A narrow strike on Iranian nuclear facilities similar to what Israel did in Iraq in 1981, when it destroyed the Osirak nuclear reactor and set back Iraq's bomb, would probably fail, as Iran has dispersed its facilities. Iranians of all political stripes say that no deal will stop them from enriching uranium, and it would be foolish not to believe them. First, the U.S. must reassure Iran's neighbors, like Iraq and Saudi Arabia, that it would defend them if requested against Iranian bullying - a measure that would limit a spiral of proliferation. Second, American leaders should continue their rhetorical emphasis on the dangerous linkage between terrorists and weapons of mass destruction, making it painfully clear that any support of terrorists by Iran would have grave implications. Last, Iran must become even more of an intelligence priority.
2005-06-02 00:00:00
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