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Deteriorating Security May Short-Circuit Israeli-Palestinian Opportunities

(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Brig. Gen. Michael Herzog - * Although Israeli-Palestinian coordination seems to be improving as disengagement approaches, the security situation itself is deteriorating, in terms of both anarchy in the internal Palestinian scene and Palestinian violence against Israelis. * The recent upsurge of violence includes not only more frequent rocket strikes by militant groups from Gaza, but also renewed attempts at suicide bombing and other forms of terrorism. Most of this increased activity can be attributed to Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which recently decided to abandon the ceasefire, and to extremist Fatah cells (many of which are encouraged by Hizballah). * Good intentions and rhetoric from PA officials about "one authority, one law, one gun" have not been matched by deeds. In addition, the essential reform of the Palestinian security services is advancing at much too slow a pace. * Abbas's reluctance to enforce his authority and confront those who challenge his policy, including within his own Fatah movement, is perceived domestically as weakness, further eroding his political power. * Time is not on Abbas's side. If the militants translate their gains into convincing victories in the upcoming parliamentary elections, his room to maneuver will be further diminished, especially in terms of disarming them and providing security. The writer is a visiting military fellow at The Washington Institute.
2005-06-29 00:00:00
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