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Will the Assad Regime Survive?

(Ynet News) Ron Ben-Yishai - The thousands of refugees pouring into Syria, the YouTube videos showing mass demonstrations, and even the angry condemnations and international sanctions do not necessarily attest to the Assad regime's imminent collapse. The opposite may be true as the opposition appears to be unable to coalesce the mass demonstrations and sporadic armed rebellions across Syria into an all-out popular uprising. After more than three months of upheaval, nowhere in Syria have we seen a critical mass of motivated protestors that would topple the violent regime (as was the case in Egypt and Tunisia). The Assad regime has been able to secure its objectives thus far because it has managed to maintain loyalty, obedience, and operational capabilities among its main power sources: The army, security arms, Alawite sect and the business community. Members of all sects serve in the army and have been trained to obey, even if these are Sunnis or Kurds who secretly despise the regime. They also know that security officers operating alongside them, and even low-ranking officers within their units, will not hesitate to shoot them in the back should they refuse orders.
2011-06-20 00:00:00
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