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Baath Lite

(Jerusalem Report) Ehud Ya'ari - The most intriguing question, now that the UN report on the assassination of former Lebanese premier al-Hariri has exposed Damascus's responsibility, is whether senior members of the Syrian leadership will try to shed themselves of President Assad and his family in the hope of saving themselves and the Baath regime. A palace coup would require an alliance of forces from the army, the security services, and leaders of the Alawite community. In addition, the Sunni merchant class would have to give its quiet blessing and the Druse minority would have to turn a blind eye. It will be difficult for such a coalition to form in the shadow of the ubiquitous informer system. International pressures on Syria are aimed, it seems, at encouraging the formation of an anti-Assad coalition from within his own court - the kind of process that would essentially try to produce a Baath Lite regime, and minimize the risk of implosion in the case of a sudden collapse.
2005-11-11 00:00:00
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