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Egypt-Sinai-Gaza: The Triangular Threat to Israel

(Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University) Gilad Stern, Einav Yogev, and Yoram Schweitzer - Last week's attack on the gas pipeline in the El-Arish area in northern Sinai was the fifth attack on the pipeline in the past six months. While no organization has taken responsibility for the attacks, various elements in Egypt have pointed to terrorist organizations based in Gaza: al-Tawhid wa al-Jihad and Jaish al-Islam. These events, along with the sharp increase in smuggling of advanced weapons through Sinai to Gaza, make Sinai a security challenge for Israel because of the looser control of the peninsula by the new Egyptian regime. Sinai is likely to become a "no-man's land" from a security point of view, where terrorist organizations will be able to maneuver more easily. Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi, head of Israeli Military Intelligence, recently observed that Egyptian security forces "are losing control over the Sinai region." Recent developments sharpen the need for an in-depth examination of the possibility of a strategic shift in relations between Israel and Egypt. This would likely require new military and security arrangements on the southern front, quiet for over thirty years. At the same time, the accepted assessment in Israel is that the new regime in Egypt will continue to adhere to the peace treaty. Nonetheless, as long as the Egyptian security apparatus is occupied primarily with the uprising aftermaths in the large cities, the common border area between Egypt, Israel and Gaza will likely continue to be a focus for increased activity by terrorist organizations against Israeli targets.
2011-07-29 00:00:00
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