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The March toward a Nuclear Iran

(Washington Post) Ray Takeyh - For years it was assumed that economic sanctions and diplomacy would produce a pliable negotiating partner in Iran. But Iran's truculence has effectively undermined the once-popular notion. Iran's scientific infrastructure has grown in sophistication and capability in the past two decades. That Iran has crossed successive technical thresholds, has managed to sustain an elaborate and growing enrichment network, and is about to unveil a new generation of centrifuges are all indications of its scientific acumen. In today's Iran, a dedicated corps of scientific nationalists is committed to providing the mullahs with the means of building the bomb, and in the next few years Iran will be in position to detonate a nuclear device. An aggressive theocracy armed with the bomb will cast a dangerous shadow over the region's political transition, but the consequences will not be limited to the Middle East. An Iranian bomb is likely to unleash the most divisive partisan discord in the U.S. since the 1949 debate about who lost China. In the end, neither the turbulent order of the Middle East nor the partisan politics of Washington can afford an Islamic Republic armed with nuclear weapons. The writer is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
2011-08-05 00:00:00
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