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[Saban Center for Middle East Policy/Brookings Institution] Daniel Byman and Kenneth Pollack - This analysis examines the history of some dozen recent civil wars to reveal the general patterns by which such conflicts can "spill over" into neighboring states, causing further civil wars or regional conflicts. From this history, the authors propose policy options for the U.S. to employ to try to contain the spillover effects of a full-scale Iraqi civil war. The options include: don't try to pick winners; avoid active support for partition (for now); don't dump the problem on the UN; pull back from Iraqi population centers; provide support to Iraq's neighbors; bolster regional stability; dissuade foreign intervention; lay down "red lines" to Iran; establish a contact group; prepare for oil supply disruptions; manage the Kurds; strike at terrorist facilities; and consider establishing safe havens or "catch basins" along Iraq's borders. 2007-02-16 01:00:00Full Article
Containing the Spillover from an Iraqi Civil War
[Saban Center for Middle East Policy/Brookings Institution] Daniel Byman and Kenneth Pollack - This analysis examines the history of some dozen recent civil wars to reveal the general patterns by which such conflicts can "spill over" into neighboring states, causing further civil wars or regional conflicts. From this history, the authors propose policy options for the U.S. to employ to try to contain the spillover effects of a full-scale Iraqi civil war. The options include: don't try to pick winners; avoid active support for partition (for now); don't dump the problem on the UN; pull back from Iraqi population centers; provide support to Iraq's neighbors; bolster regional stability; dissuade foreign intervention; lay down "red lines" to Iran; establish a contact group; prepare for oil supply disruptions; manage the Kurds; strike at terrorist facilities; and consider establishing safe havens or "catch basins" along Iraq's borders. 2007-02-16 01:00:00Full Article
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