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(Jerusalem Post) Jonathan Spyer - Observers should be careful before confidently predicting the imminent fall of the house of Assad. Firstly, the Assad regime is not friendless or isolated. Its Iranian strategic partner is still there, as are Russia and China. Their support is preventing any effective response from the UN Security Council. Secondly, the half-hearted Arab League "protocol" for resolving the issue is intended largely to prevent a more determined international response. The Arabs do not want to see another Western military intervention into the heart of the Arab world. The League's plan is intended to prevent this by pretending to represent an alternative Arab road to reform in Syria. Leaving the Syrian issue in the hands of the Arab League means leaving Assad in power.2011-12-13 00:00:00Full Article
Assad's Fall May Not Be Imminent
(Jerusalem Post) Jonathan Spyer - Observers should be careful before confidently predicting the imminent fall of the house of Assad. Firstly, the Assad regime is not friendless or isolated. Its Iranian strategic partner is still there, as are Russia and China. Their support is preventing any effective response from the UN Security Council. Secondly, the half-hearted Arab League "protocol" for resolving the issue is intended largely to prevent a more determined international response. The Arabs do not want to see another Western military intervention into the heart of the Arab world. The League's plan is intended to prevent this by pretending to represent an alternative Arab road to reform in Syria. Leaving the Syrian issue in the hands of the Arab League means leaving Assad in power.2011-12-13 00:00:00Full Article
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