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Too Early to Call It a Day on Iran

(Ha'aretz) Emily B. Landau - Yes, Iran is moving toward a military capability in the nuclear realm; and no, we don't know if it has decided to actually produce nuclear weapons. But the fact that Iran may not have made a decision whether to go all the way to weapons, or rather to remain at some threshold close to that point, is no cause for comfort. While the international community has so far proven powerless to stop Iran and it is indeed very late in the game, it is also too early to concede that "Iran will no doubt become a nuclear state." Massive pressure on Iran - including credible threats of military action - is the only way to impress upon it that serious negotiation is preferable to moving unilaterally toward its goal. Whether as a first stage to a more serious negotiation, or for purposes of general deterrence, Iran must be convinced that there are states in the international community that are willing to act on their convictions; states that understand that Iran is not just "another state going nuclear," but rather a dangerous revisionist regime that seeks to alter the face of the Middle East. The most dangerous scenario is not that of escalation, due to Iran's reaction to a more determined international stance. The most dangerous scenario is of Iran becoming a nuclear state. This menacing regime will then become virtually invulnerable to any kind of coercive pressure - not to mention military attack - in response to the large-scale trouble it will invariably stir up in the Middle East and beyond. It's not time to give up. Communicating a message to Iran that it can no longer be stopped, and moreover, that the international community is loath to upset it, is a huge mistake. The writer is director of the Arms Control and Regional Security Program at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University.
2011-12-16 00:00:00
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