Daily Alert Archives

The Real Iranian Threat in the Gulf

(Foreign Policy) Michael Singh - Could Tehran close the Strait of Hormuz? As many analysts have observed, the answer is no - not for a meaningful period of time. Would Iran even try? The answer to that question is also "no" - even the attempt would have devastating strategic consequences for Iran. Less than 25% of U.S. oil imports came from all the Gulf countries combined in October 2011. China, on the other hand, would find its oil supplies significantly threatened by an Iranian move against the strait. Thus a move to close the strait would backfire strategically by harming the interests of - and likely alienating - Iran's most important patron and cutting off Iran's own economic lifeline, while doing little to imperil U.S. supplies of crude. It is perhaps no coincidence that China quickly dispatched Vice Foreign Minister Zhai Jun to Tehran in the wake of Iran's bellicose statements. The real danger in the Gulf is lower-level activity by Iran to harass shipping and confront the U.S. Navy. The U.S. should indicate clearly to Iran that we are prepared to use selective military force in response to further provocations. It is frequently observed that the consequences of military action are unpredictable, and rightly so; it should only ever be used with caution and deliberation. However, excessive risk aversion which results in a failure of deterrence and feeds Iran's sense of impunity may, paradoxically, be just as risky. The writer, a former senior director for Middle East affairs at the U.S. National Security Council, is managing director of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
2012-01-04 00:00:00
Full Article