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An Iranian Nuclear Breakout Is Not Inevitable

(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Patrick Clawson - There is no magic bullet that will resolve the nuclear impasse with Iran - no single diplomatic, military, or sanctions measure that will be decisive. But the cumulative impact of intensifying measures on every front may raise the costs to Iran of continuing on its current path and show Iran's leaders the futility of their nuclear efforts. Iran has been pursuing nuclear enrichment for more than twenty years, and the results of all that effort are not impressive, paired with massive costs. At some point, Tehran may seek a way out. To be sure, the Islamic Republic seems unlikely to abandon the objective of eventually attaining a nuclear weapons capability. But Tehran may agree to a tactical adjustment that could have a strategic consequence. Postponing the nuclear program may look like only a delay, but a delay could be a victory because the Islamic Republic may not last forever. The writer is director of research at The Washington Institute.
2012-01-05 00:00:00
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