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Life After Gaza

(UPI/Washington Times) Barry Rubin - What would the situation actually be after an Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip? The main gain would be a psychological lift for Israelis to say they were no longer there. But political and strategic benefits to Israel may well be limited and not necessarily last. The U.S. and Britain would enthusiastically endorse withdrawal; the rest of Europe would say it was a step in the right direction but not enough. There would then be renewed pressure to "do something," most likely demands in some quarters for an additional unilateral withdrawal from all the West Bank outside the security fence. Fatah and Hamas would proclaim an Israeli withdrawal as a defeat brought about by their armed struggle, only proving that more fighting and terrorism was needed to force Israel into additional unilateral concessions. The recruitment of activists, gunmen, and suicide terrorists would increase. The security situation would include an upsurge in West Bank terrorist efforts inspired by a Gaza withdrawal and the credible argument that a few more months of violence would force a unilateral Israeli withdrawal from that area. No Palestinian would say anything publicly to the effect that this deed showed Israel's readiness for peace and compromise. The writer is director of the Global Research in International Affairs Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs Journal.
2004-05-21 00:00:00
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