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Bashar al-Assad vs. the Syrian People

(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Jeffrey White - Although the regime has a large number of forces - up to several hundred thousand military and security personnel - it cannot conduct large-scale multi-brigade/divisional offensives in all areas of unrest simultaneously. The regime has had limited success during the current offensive. Yet these gains have been made at significant cost in terms of casualties and damage, and without demonstrating that the regime can clear and hold areas for longer than the time troops are sitting on top of them. Moreover, the army is showing signs of strain. The increased use of field artillery suggests that it is concerned about fighting the FSA up close in difficult urban environments. It also seems worried about the FSA's antitank capabilities. In addition, ground forces have shown evidence of declining combat spirit, with reports of infantry units unwilling to advance.
2012-02-16 00:00:00
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