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Containment Won't Work Against Iran

(Wall Street Journal Europe) Daniel Schwammenthal - As concerns grow that diplomacy and sanctions - including the recent European oil ban - may not stop Iran's nuclear program, it is becoming popular to invoke the Cold War, when the policy of containment managed to avoid all-out war with a nuclear Soviet Union. But the analogy fails on several grounds. Mutually assured destruction (MAD) might be more of an incentive than a deterrent for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and those around him. In addition, Iran lacks second-strike capability and Israel is too small to absorb a nuclear attack. The temptation to launch a preemptive attack will therefore be far greater than that faced by the U.S. and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Add to that the much shorter flight times for missiles between Iran and Israel than between the U.S. and the Soviet Union - giving both sides much less time to think and react - and the chances for conflict or mishap spiraling out of control grow exponentially. And unlike during the Cold War, in which there were only two main nuclear players, an Iranian bomb would inevitably lead other neighboring states to follow suit, producing a fragile standoff between several actors. Will any country rely on Western promises to protect them from a nuclear Iran after the same promises failed to curtail a conventionally armed Iran? Furthermore, the Iranian regime can circumvent the logic of MAD by passing on a nuclear device to terrorists. Following an atomic attack against a Western city, it would take investigators weeks, if not months, to determine the culprits, who may never be identified beyond reasonable doubt. The writer is director of the AJC Transatlantic Institute in Brussels.
2012-02-16 00:00:00
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