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Can an American President Promise Preventive War to Assuage an Ally?

(National Journal) James Kitfield - Israel believes that Iran is approaching a "zone of immunity" in the coming months as it buries nuclear infrastructure, and the Israelis don't trust the U.S. to launch its own military strikes if Iran crosses predetermined red lines on the way to a nuclear weapon. As if an American president can promise preventive war to assuage an ally. Martin Indyk, director of the Foreign Policy Program at the Brookings Institution, and a former U.S. ambassador to Israel, said: "The Iranians keep moving closer to the nuclear-weapons threshold; Israel gets increasingly nervous and threatens military strikes; the United States tightens sanctions in part to try and calm the Israelis; and an Iranian regime that already feels threatened reacts with greater defiance." Having begun by passively insisting that a nuke was "unacceptable" and that "no options were off the table," the administration is now on record saying that Iran's ambitions would provoke action. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta recently told "60 Minutes,": "If they proceed, and we get intelligence that they're proceeding with developing a nuclear weapon, then we will take whatever steps are necessary to stop it." That declaration may be bringing the Americans and Israelis closer together. "I expect the upcoming White House talks will project not only the image but the reality of tighter coordination on Iran's nuclear program," says Dennis Ross, who until recently was a special assistant to the president focused on Iran. "There is really no difference in the primary objective that Iran cannot be permitted to acquire nuclear weapons." The major focus of discussion will be on the timelines and on Israel's concern that the window for military action is closing.
2012-03-05 00:00:00
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