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Last Chance with Iran?

(Diplomat-Japan) Emily B. Landau and Ephraim Asculai - The current dynamic between Iran and the international community has a long history, and the upcoming round of negotiations can't be divorced from the experience of almost ten years of diplomatic efforts to get Iran to back away from its military nuclear ambitions. In every previous round, Iran has used a diplomatic setting to play for time, rather than to negotiate in earnest, and the haggling over the venue could be an indication this trend is likely to continue. There can be little doubt that the demonstrated seriousness of the international community - the U.S. and EU in particular - with regard to sanctions is a major factor behind a greater sense of potential than in the past. Assessments are that the Iranians are feeling the heat of biting sanctions, and the increased threats of military consequences are another important component in their apparent willingness to seek a negotiated outcome. The ten-year experience of not negotiating in good faith means that Iran must prove that it's serious about reaching a deal that in essence will mean giving up on its goal of achieving a military capability in the nuclear realm, before the international community suspends the most crippling sanctions. The critical issues that must be dealt with from the perspective of the international community include the installation of centrifuges and the operation of the Fordow underground enrichment facility; the enrichment of uranium to 20%; the installation of advanced centrifuges; the construction of a heavy-water natural uranium reactor, capable of producing plutonium; the military-related R&D work on the development of a nuclear explosive mechanism at secret facilities; and the development of a nuclear-capable missile warhead. At the more general level, Iran's expressed animosity towards the West must be reduced, and the rejectionist rhetoric and threats of action against Israel in particular must disappear. Emily B. Landau is director of the Arms Control and Regional Security program at Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies. Dr. Ephraim Asculai is a Senior Research Fellow at INSS, after more than 40 years at the Israel Atomic Energy Commission.
2012-04-11 00:00:00
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