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The Anarchy Factor in Syria

(Toronto Star) Itamar Rabinovich - The failure of the U.S., its Western allies and several Middle East regional powers to take bolder action to stop the carnage in Syria is often explained by their fear of anarchy. Yet anarchy is setting in now: it is preceding - and precipitating - the regime's eventual fall. On the surface, the regime appears almost intact, but in the country as a whole it is collapsing. Some areas are now beyond its control, public services are unavailable, and the economy is in free fall. Assad's fall does not yet seem imminent, but it has become inevitable. The regime has lost all legitimacy and its effectiveness is weakening. Fear of another Islamist takeover is another argument against toppling Assad, but the longer he stays in power, the greater the gains made by Islamists on the ground. The current preference for inaction, while perhaps understandable, threatens to lead to precisely the outcomes that its advocates want to avoid. The writer, a former ambassador of Israel to the U.S. (1993-1996), is currently based at Tel Aviv University, New York University and the Brookings Institution.
2012-05-03 00:00:00
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