Daily Alert Archives

Iran's Leader Must Choose Between Enmity and Economy

(Financial Times-UK) Ray Takeyh - Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's theocratic state needs an American enemy and some degree of estrangement from the international community to sanction its grip on power. For a long time, he believed he could advance the nuclear program at a tolerable cost to Iran's economy. Yet now, persisting with convenient enmities will further erode the economy - and could threaten his hold on power. Nuclear empowerment has become a core element of the Islamic Republic's strategic conception. An enhanced nuclear capacity allows Iran to assume a more domineering role in the region. It is therefore no surprise that Khamenei is averse to concessions that would arrest Iran's nuclear trajectory. The Western powers would be wise to stress that sanctions will not be lifted until Iran takes a fundamentally different approach. The European boycott of Iranian oil scheduled for July should therefore be implemented irrespective of the offers Iran is sure to dangle between now and then. It is entirely possible that the Supreme Leader will opt to preside over a country with a nuclear program and a permanently degraded economy. The writer is a Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
2012-05-18 00:00:00
Full Article