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A Lull in the Drift toward War with Iran?

(CNN) Aaron David Miller - The hope is that negotiations can create an opening for a small deal on the nuclear issue in which Iran would agree to enrich uranium at much reduced levels, agree to inspections and perhaps even export its stockpile of weapons-grade material out of the country in return for an easing of some of the less onerous sanctions. The only problem with this approach is that its chances of success are dubious. The negotiating process may well produce limited understandings. But it's hard to see how these will turn into a sustainable deal that can convince the West, let alone the Israelis, that Iran has given up its quest for nukes. The Iranian regime wants the bomb, not primarily to have the option of attacking Israel, a possible fringe benefit, but as a hedge against regime change and as a prestige weapon in its quest for regional power and influence. Iran fashions itself a great power, and great powers believe they need the ultimate weapon. Iran's nuclear program is too advanced, too entrenched, too redundant and too secretive to be stopped permanently, even by military attack. To do so, you'd need to change the regime. The nuclear issue needs to be seen in the context of the broader dysfunction in the relationship between Washington and Tehran. Truth is, the regime is right. America wants an end to its repression and brutality, freedom for the Iranian people and Iran's regional ambitions curtailed. There's almost no issue on which Washington and Tehran agree. Given the level of suspicion and mistrust, the odds of finding a sustainable modus vivendi soon are slim to none. We wouldn't have the tough sanctions we do if it weren't for President Obama's and the Europeans' fear of an Israeli strike. The Iranian regime won't stop, and will inch closer to a breakout capacity to produce a weapon. The Israelis will then have to decide whether to launch a military strike or bring enough pressure on the Obama administration to do so, even if it only means a setback of a year or two. Only one country can stop Iran from acquiring a military nuclear capacity - that's Iran, should it judge the costs of acquisition too high. The writer, a public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, served as a Middle East negotiator in Democratic and Republican administrations.
2012-05-25 00:00:00
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