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Another Saudi Actuarial Disaster

(Foreign Policy) - Simon Henderson - Washington woke on Saturday to the news of the death of Crown Prince Nayef, who was next in line for the Saudi throne. The collective sigh of relief by senior U.S. officials was almost audible. Nayef was renowned for being difficult and unimaginative, only able to view policy options in terms of choices that worsened problems rather than eased them. His support for the kingdom's religious conservatives during his decades in office had arguably only added to jihadi extremism. Among the next generation of Saudi princes, there is intense competition for such a prestigious role in a major ministry. Therein lies the fundamental problem with leadership of the kingdom: Its succession mechanism is an actuarial disaster area. Notionally, the throne should pass from brother to brother among the sons of Ibn Saud, who died in 1953. The system means that Saudi monarchs are getting progressively older -- with all that means in terms of energy for the role and mental acuity. The kings of Saudi Arabia are graying, and look to become even grayer in the years ahead. The logical way to resolve this problem is to allow the succession system to jump down to the next generation. It arguably should happen but almost certainly won't -- personal ambition of individual princes outweighs their appreciation of their mutual interest. Given Saudi Arabia's centrality in the Middle East, if not the world, that may turn out to be to the detriment of all of us. Simon Henderson is the Baker fellow and director of the Gulf and Energy Policy Program at The Washington Institute.
2012-06-19 00:00:00
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