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The Generals, Not the Dictator, Hold the Keys to the Regime

(The National -- UAE) - Michael Young - It is strange how many people today seem surprised by the actions of the Egyptian armed forces, who have consolidated their political supremacy in recent days. That's because virtually nothing in what occurred a year and a half ago spelled revolution. Mubarak's stepping down represented a tactical retreat by the military to preserve its political and economic stakes in the system. The true test of the success of the Arab uprisings was always about whether they replaced the old order's instruments of repression - principally the army and the security forces, but also the judiciary - with accountable institutions. In Egypt, the state has historically been strong and society more or less homogeneous, allowing the military to take on the attributes of a supra-national body, extending its tentacles even into the economy. In Syria, we have also been witnessing the durability of the institutions of repression, albeit from a very different angle than in Egypt. The Syrian army and security forces, or rather the praetorian units with the most sway, are there to uphold Assad family rule, and that of the relatively small clique around them, most of whom are members of the Alawite sect. While there is more carnage to come, Al Assad's armed forces and security organs, after all the blood that they have shed, cannot conceivably anchor themselves in the system by managing, and hijacking, a political changeover. Rather, the core of any new military institution will be the disparate elements of the Free Syrian Army. The writer is opinion editor of The Daily Star in Beirut.
2012-06-22 00:00:00
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