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The Withdrawal of Syrian Forces from Lebanon

(Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies-Tel Aviv University) Eyal Zisser - Last week, Syria announced that it would redeploy its forces in Lebanon outside of Lebanese population centers in a signal to the international community, and especially the U.S., that Syria is responsive to voices from Washington demanding Syrian respect for Lebanese sovereignty. For years, Syria has been constantly redeploying its forces and reducing the number posted in Lebanon, but even after this latest reduction, Syria will remain the ultimate overlord of Lebanon, using its intelligence and security agencies along with its claque of Lebanese collaborators. The latest announcement is little more than a public relations exercise. Syria's presence in Lebanon is, first and foremost, an economic imperative. Syria earns hundreds of millions of dollars every month, primarily from the remittances of hundreds of thousands of Syrian workers who have flooded the Lebanese labor market, but also from the involvement of senior Syrian officials in the smuggling of drugs, weapons, and other goods. Syria is not about to terminate its presence in Lebanon - or its backing for Hizballah. And since there seems to be no Lebanese element prepared to resist Syrian hegemony, only irresistible Western pressure or a major domestic crisis can bring about a real Syrian withdrawal.
2004-09-28 00:00:00
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