Daily Alert Archives

Decision-Making about Iran

(Ynet News) Maj. Gen. (ret.) Amos Yadlin - "A good agreement would keep Iran at least two years away from nuclear bombs," writes former IDF Military Intelligence Chief Amos Yadlin, who now heads the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, in an essay titled "A Conceptual Framework and Decision-Making Model for Israel about Iran." But without a credible threat of military action, diplomacy and other strategies to block or delay Iranian nuclearization would be ineffective, he states. "It is also important to build up maximal legitimacy for a future strike should diplomacy fail....It is incumbent to ensure that the entire world is prepared to participate in the ongoing effort to stop Iran the day and the decade after the attack." "Demonstrating the scope of losses to Iran from maintaining its military nuclear program, continuing the sanctions, blocking critical technologies and materials, threatening repeated attacks, and continuing diplomatic pressure are all part of a necessary next stage campaign in which Israel cannot succeed on its own." "This manifests the importance of gaining legitimacy for an Israeli strike and international - or at least American - recognition that Israel acted only after all other attempts had failed." "Without legitimacy allowing an international campaign over the subsequent decade, Israel faces the risk of finding itself opting for bombing and bearing its full cost, and still ending up with the Iranian bomb and its attendant dangers." "The Iranians have neither the capability nor the interest in setting fire to the entire Middle East. It is almost certain that there would be an Iranian response after an attack, but calculated Iranian interests suggest that it would be measured and tolerable, especially in light of the achievement of stopping Iran's nuclear program."
2012-08-16 00:00:00
Full Article