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The Day After Arafat

(Maariv International) Amit Cohen - The death of Arafat, whether it takes place today or in a year, would constitute a severe crisis for the Palestinian people. Only after he is gone would they come to realize that he has no replacement. The veteran leadership will vanish together with Arafat. Its members' power stemmed from him, and many are identified with the corruption of the PA. Political figures like Abu Mazen or Abu Ala would not be able to replace Arafat since they do not have the support of the street or of Fatah's armed operatives. The young generation of the Tanzim and the al-Aksa Brigades is scattered among gangs, many controlled by Hizballah. The intermediate generation is essentially non-existent. Mohammad Dahlan or Marwan Barghouti could assume the leadership role, but that would be a far-fetched outcome. Israeli officials see two possible scenarios: One, in which the anarchy gains momentum and lasts for a long period of time, thereby dividing Palestinian territories into several areas with little connection between them, and, two, which is probably more realistic, a group of leaders emerges rather than one leader, which would include Fatah ground commanders, heads of security apparatuses, and politicians like Abu Mazen or Abu Ala. Without Arafat's presence, Hamas would feel more comfortable to establish its status. Yet Hamas is also suffering from a leadership vacuum after the elimination of its leaders.
2004-10-28 00:00:00
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