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To Stop Iran, All Options Must (Really) Be on the Table

(Fathom Journal-BICOM) Emily B. Landau - Since early 2012, the U.S. has adopted a much more determined approach in confronting Iran's nuclear activities than had been the case in previous years. In January the administration finally moved to the biting sanctions that it had threatened for several years. The EU also surprised the world with its decision to put in place an embargo on Iranian oil, which took full effect on 1 July 2012. The principal hurdle that has precluded the success of negotiations is that the international community is the only party interested in a deal. Iran, on the other hand, has strong motivations to avoid negotiating a deal because it would mean giving up on its long-term goal, for which it has paid a hefty price. The road to redressing the imbalance goes through the application of pressure on Iran. Significant pressure - through harsh economic and diplomatic sanctions and credible threats of military consequences for inaction - must be put in place in order to alter the Iranian regime's calculation. Iran came to the table in April 2012 most likely because of the impact of the biting economic sanctions that were put in place several months earlier. However, credible military threats are essential to this dynamic, and are still missing. Without massive economic and military pressure, it is hard to imagine Iran would ever consider a deal. The writer is Director of the Arms Control and Regional Security Program at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University.
2012-11-07 00:00:00
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