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Why Assad Won't Use His Chemical Weapons

(Foreign Policy) Charles P. Blair - It remains doubtful that Damascus is at the point where the use of chemical weapons against rebels makes tactical or strategic sense. Designed for use in large-scale, state-to-state warfare, Syria's chemical weapons are particularly unsuited for the urban fights that have characterized the civil war. Close-quarters combat renders chemical weapons not only ineffective but counterproductive; with sarin or VX, a simple wind shift could turn the deadly agent against the Syrian military. The greater threat remains terrorist acquisition of chemical weapons if the military loses control over relevant sites and facilities. The good news is that few terrorist groups would actually be able to use any materials they acquired. Nerve agents require precision and perennial care. Absent the scientific expertise to maintain and replenish various precursors, many of the agents' purity rates will degrade. Depending on how the particular precursor or agent is stored, its shelf-life could diminish rapidly. The writer is senior fellow on state and non-state threats at the Federation of American Scientists.
2012-12-07 00:00:00
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