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EU Set to Urge New Talks

(Jerusalem Post)Gerald M. Steinberg - For the optimists, Arafat's demise is an opportunity to revive negotiations and to reach a quick agreement based on the two-state formula. For many diplomats, a change in the Palestinian leadership is seen as the starting point for a new peace initiative. This effort is likely to be led by Europe, and will begin by pressing Israel for major concessions and security risks. Israel might even be asked to accept "a short delay" in the dismantling of terror networks to avoid internal Palestinian conflict. And when Israel refuses, the result will be increased tension in relations with Europe. But beyond wishful thinking and the deep desire for Arab-Israeli stability, there is little evidence that such a scenario is realistic. The probability that a pragmatic and broadly accepted Palestinian leader will emerge from the rubble of Arafat's divisive rule is not very high. After being taught for decades that the Jews have no historical or religious rights in the Land of Israel, Palestinian society will have great difficulty in accepting the transition necessary for ending the violence on the basis of mutual acceptance. The new Palestinian leadership will face a formidable challenge in reversing the legacy of terror, but until such a leadership appears, and terror groups are disarmed, traumatized Israelis are unlikely to endorse political initiatives that include major security risks, such as military withdrawal from Palestinian areas and open borders. The writer directs the Program on Conflict Management and Negotiation at Bar-Ilan University.
2004-11-05 00:00:00
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