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(Washington Post) Jackson Diehl - There's a good case to be made that next year will finally bring a break in the Iranian standoff - by means of a military confrontation, the appearance of an Iranian bomb or a diplomatic deal of some kind. One of the people making that case is President Obama's first-term adviser on Iran, Dennis Ross. His reasons that next year will be different boil down to three: an approaching Iranian "breakout" capacity; Obama's stated determination to prevent it; and the slow emergence of an economic and political climate in Iran that could prompt Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to change course. Obama himself defined "breakout capacity" in the third presidential debate in October. It "means that we would not be able to intervene in time to stop their nuclear program." Ross contends that statement reflected a carefully-drawn red line. In his first year in office, Obama presided over an internal debate about whether an Iranian nuclear bomb could be tolerated and contained; he eventually decided that it must be prevented, by military action if necessary. Ross says that Obama's definition of "breakout capacity" may have contributed to Israel's decision to postpone military action of its own. It's hard to imagine Obama explaining to the nation that another Middle East war is necessary because Iran's uranium stockpile has grown a few kilograms too large. But that's not the scenario Ross envisages. He says Obama will likely first present Khamenei with a final offer, allowing Iran a civil nuclear power program under tight restrictions. "He will make some unmistakable demonstration that he is going the extra mile," Ross says. For the moment, Ross says, the Iranians "are not convinced we are prepared to use force." Consequently, he says, "at this point I would still put the prospects for diplomacy at less than 50-50." And: "If by the end of 2013 diplomacy hasn't worked, the prospects for use of force become quite high." 2012-12-24 00:00:00Full Article
Will 2013 See Action on Iran's Nuclear Program?
(Washington Post) Jackson Diehl - There's a good case to be made that next year will finally bring a break in the Iranian standoff - by means of a military confrontation, the appearance of an Iranian bomb or a diplomatic deal of some kind. One of the people making that case is President Obama's first-term adviser on Iran, Dennis Ross. His reasons that next year will be different boil down to three: an approaching Iranian "breakout" capacity; Obama's stated determination to prevent it; and the slow emergence of an economic and political climate in Iran that could prompt Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to change course. Obama himself defined "breakout capacity" in the third presidential debate in October. It "means that we would not be able to intervene in time to stop their nuclear program." Ross contends that statement reflected a carefully-drawn red line. In his first year in office, Obama presided over an internal debate about whether an Iranian nuclear bomb could be tolerated and contained; he eventually decided that it must be prevented, by military action if necessary. Ross says that Obama's definition of "breakout capacity" may have contributed to Israel's decision to postpone military action of its own. It's hard to imagine Obama explaining to the nation that another Middle East war is necessary because Iran's uranium stockpile has grown a few kilograms too large. But that's not the scenario Ross envisages. He says Obama will likely first present Khamenei with a final offer, allowing Iran a civil nuclear power program under tight restrictions. "He will make some unmistakable demonstration that he is going the extra mile," Ross says. For the moment, Ross says, the Iranians "are not convinced we are prepared to use force." Consequently, he says, "at this point I would still put the prospects for diplomacy at less than 50-50." And: "If by the end of 2013 diplomacy hasn't worked, the prospects for use of force become quite high." 2012-12-24 00:00:00Full Article
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