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Fall of Damascus May Not End Syrian Civil War

(Fathom-BICOM) Jonathan Spyer - The regime of President Bashar Assad is contracting, and seeking to establish new defensive lines. In the capital city Damascus, Assad's forces are ceding rebel-held eastern suburbs and fiercely defending the remainder. At the same time, Assad is building an additional defensive line in the Orontes River valley, west of the majority Sunni cities of Homs and Hama. This appears to be part of a strategy whereby if Damascus falls, the regime will seek to maintain control of an area of Alawi majority population in the west of the country, from where it will continue its fight. If the capital city falls, this will effectively mark the end of the Assad regime, but it will probably not mark the end of the Syrian civil war. The core, Alawi-dominated, Praetorian Guard type units of the Syrian Arab Army remain loyal to the regime. The 4th Armored Division and the Republican Guard, both commanded by the president's brother, Maher, remain intact, as do the regime's special forces and the "Shabiha" Alawi irregular forces. The fall of Assad would mean a major, strategic setback for Iranian ambitions in the Levant area. Yet Israel is acutely aware of the large numbers of Syrian and foreign Salafi (extreme Sunni Islamist) fighters playing a vital part in the fight against Assad. The presence of these men, and the likely anarchy in a post-Assad Syria, would bring with it the possibility of attacks on Israel from across the border. The writer is a senior research fellow at the Global Research in International Affairs Center in Herzliya.
2013-02-12 00:00:00
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