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Is Israel on the Verge of a Third Intifada?

(Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University) Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Shlomo Brom - Even if we presume that the continued diplomatic deadlock will ultimately provoke another Palestinian outburst, at this point it does not appear that the current events will bring about large-scale escalation that in retrospect will be called the third intifada. Abbas is committed to a policy of non-violence and is aware of the danger of riding the tiger called the angry masses. He understood this early in the second intifada, and made every effort to move Arafat to stop it. For this reason, unequivocal orders have been given in recent weeks to the Palestinian security forces to prevent any escalation. There has also been an effort to control the demonstrations fully through the involvement of Fatah activists in organizing and controlling them. Developments thus far indicate that the PA remains in strong control over the protests. Their scope is relatively small, the number of participants is not more than in the hundreds, and there is no trend toward escalation. The idea of returning to the chaos of the intifada does not appeal to the Palestinian public. It is only in recent years that the Palestinians in the West Bank have returned to a certain level of normalcy, and they are not eager to return to the crisis years of the previous decade. Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Shlomo Brom, a senior research associate at INSS, served as director of the Strategic Planning Division in the Planning Branch of the IDF General Staff.
2013-03-06 00:00:00
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