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Post-Saddam Peace Prospects in the Mideast

(New York Times/Council on Foreign Relations)- Martin Indyk There will be new opportunities created by the removal of Saddam Hussein, assuming we can succeed in that task fairly quickly, with fairly limited casualties, and be able to stabilize Iraq in the aftermath. If that is the case, then we will have succeeded in tilting the balance of power in the Middle East region fundamentally in our direction and the direction of our friends in the region. The countries in the region will look to [Washington]. The opponents of Arab-Israeli reconciliation will have suffered a major setback. Life is miserable for the Palestinians and they've basically had enough of it. That exhaustion in the street is combining with an overwhelming demand among the elites on the Palestinian side for a change in government. Under the rubric of reform, they are demanding an end to Arafat's corrupt, arbitrary rule. The trouble is that the reformers have not succeeded in any significant way. Arafat for all intents and purposes still retains his power even though the Palestinian Authority is collapsing all around him. One of Arafat's aides said to me, when there was talk of reform: "There are two kinds of Arab leaders. Those who have all power concentrated in their hands. And those who are dead. Don't expect Arafat to give up power. That's a basic reality."
2003-02-07 00:00:00
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