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Stalemate in the Syrian Civil War

(Institute for Contemporary Affairs-Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs) Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah - On the second anniversary of the Syrian civil war, the Assad regime appears to be strong enough to endure a war of attrition with the rebels even with the loss of large portions of sovereign Syrian territory. Some analysts claim that the Syrian civil war began in 1980 when a group of Muslim Brothers stormed the military academy in Aleppo and, after separating the Alawite and Sunni cadets, cold-bloodedly killed the Alawites with knives and assault rifles. The regime retaliated in 1982 by brutally killing more than 20,000 Muslim Brothers in Homs and Hama. The coalition of minorities around Assad has not disintegrated. Moreover, two million Alawites also understand the implications of a Sunni Islamist regime in Syria, even one on the Egyptian model. Israel would like to see an end to the Iranian-led "axis of evil." However, the prospect of a militant Islamic regime, linked to al-Qaeda and possessing the Syrian military arsenal, is a nightmare Jerusalem cannot live with. The writer was formerly Deputy Head for Assessment of Israeli Military Intelligence.
2013-04-15 00:00:00
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