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Iraq - A Source of Oil or a Quagmire for the U.S.?

(Institute for Contemporary Affairs founded jointly with the Wechsler Family Foundation/Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs) - Mordechai Abir In an interview in Jordan on June 21, Iraq's acting oil minister, Thamir al-Ghadhban, said, "Restoration of the [Iraqi] oil industry will take some time, at least a year and a half." Currently, Iraq is producing about 500,000 barrels per day (b/d) from the old northern fields (Kirkuk) and only 300,000 b/d from the enormously rich southern (largely Rumeila) fields. Saddam Hussein's loyalists and volunteers from several Arab countries are intensifying their attacks on American troops in (Sunni Arab-inhabited) central and northwestern Iraq every day. Installations essential for (American) rehabilitation of the Iraqi economy, such as the strategic oil pipelines, have become prime targets for anti-U.S. terrorists. Arab analysts have been wondering why the Shi'a spiritual leaders, especially those who openly reject the continuous American presence and administration in Iraq, have not issued fatwas (religious edicts) calling upon their followers to rise against the foreign (infidel) conquest. The truth is that all Shi'a spiritual leaders realize that they need massive American/Western aid to rehabilitate their country. The attacks on U.S. troops and Iraqi strategic installations are being carried out by members of Sunni parties like the Iraq Islamic Party and the pan-Islamic Hizb al-Tahrir, reinforced by jihad volunteers from other Arab countries. As long as the U.S. authorities in Baghdad lack sufficient military power to enforce pax-Americana in the country, guerilla warfare against the American presence and strategic assets in Iraq is likely to escalate.
2003-06-30 00:00:00
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