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Iran, Hizbullah, Hamas and the Global Jihad: A New Conflict Paradigm for the West

[Ynet News] Dore Gold - With the establishment of a Shiite regime in Iraq for the first time, Iran's Islamic republic sensed a historic opportunity to emerge as the Middle East's top superpower, spread its influence to neighboring Shiite communities, and reach Sunni Arabs as well, above the heads of current governments. The Sunni-Shiite rivalry will emerge in the coming years as the central axis of the Middle Eastern conflict. In light of the threat faced by Arab Sunni countries, their dependence on the U.S. and its Western allies will grow. The West, for its part, does not have to pay for this cooperation with concessions at Israel's expense. The time has come to reshape Western policy based on new principles that will reflect the changing regional reality: The main threat to Sunni Arab states currently comes from Iran, and therefore, the Arab-Israeli conflict is no longer at the top of the Sunni agenda. In fact, Israel and Sunni Arabs currently share many threat perceptions. Today no diplomatic option exists for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as long as the current wave of Islamic radicalism continues. On the other hand, we can assume that unilateral Israeli withdrawals, without a Palestinian side that can engage in negotiations, will only serve to boost the success of radical Islam in the region, as happened in wake of the disengagement from Gaza. Stabilizing the Middle East requires the neutralization of all of the current radical Islamic wave's components. In this regard, the defeat of any such radical organization, be it Sunni or Shiite, is extremely important, as each such failure will weaken the other components as well. Israel needs defensible borders. We can assume that withdrawing from the Jordan Rift Valley, for example, would lead to wide-scale infiltration of terrorists into the West Bank, including the smuggling of weapons and even global jihad volunteers. Hence, Israel will find itself coping with a difficult reality, as is the case on the Philadelphi Route in the wake of the Gaza withdrawal. At the same time, the vacuum to be left behind by every Israeli withdrawal will draw more and more global jihad organizations to Jordan itself and undermine the Hashemite Kingdom's stability, and ultimately, the entire region.
2007-01-23 01:00:00
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