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Civilian Casualties of a Military Strike in Iran

(Strategic Assessment-INSS-Tel Aviv University) Ephraim Asculai - Labeling the Bushehr reactor as a main target for a strike is pure demagoguery, as no one in his right mind would consider striking an operating nuclear power reactor. First, the environmental consequences could be horrendous. Second, the utilization of this reactor for military purposes is not straightforward, while the subsequent stages for fissile materials production are also vulnerable and carry less potential for environmental consequences. Third, Iran is contractually obligated to return the irradiated fuel to Russia, so why attack this installation? The more important possible targets of a military attack are the uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow. At normal room temperature uranium hexafluoride (UF6) is a solid. Under normal conditions, if the container is ruptured, very small quantities of gas will escape to the environment and can cause injuries or even death to the workers at hand, but not to anyone beyond an immediate, circumscribed distance from the source. Since the UF6 is stored underground, even if there is a direct hit on a container, it is doubtful that a significant part of its inventory would leak to the outside atmosphere. The writer is a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS).
2013-06-05 00:00:00
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