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Statecraft: What Israel Really Gained by Bombing Syria

[New Republic] Dennis Ross - The Israelis aren't talking about it or acknowledging anything, but the reports that have emerged are that Israel took out a facility in northern Syria in which North Korea was helping Syria develop a nuclear capability. The absence of leaks coming out of Israel lends credence to the reports. Much is being made about the silence of Arab criticism of the apparent Israeli raid and what it says about Arab attitudes toward Syria. In fact, had Israel taken credit for the raid, Arab states would have felt duty-bound to condemn it. On one level the Israeli raid simply reflected an effort to blunt North Korean-Syrian nuclear development before it could allow the Syrians to develop a nuclear capability. But that is only part of the story. Israeli military officials have become convinced that Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad, has begun to believe that he could fight a limited war against Israel. He was impressed by what Hizbullah did in the war with Israel in the summer of 2006 and believes he, too, could win by not losing in a limited war. Israel has been looking for ways to convince Assad that he is miscalculating. The raid not only blunts Syria's nuclear development but also reinforces the Israeli message of deterrence. In effect, it tells President Assad that Syria has few secrets it can keep from Israel. Beyond this, the raid sends the message that Israel can hit what it wants, when it wants, and Syria is powerless to stop it.
2007-09-24 01:00:00
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