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The Middle East to 2020

(CIA) U.S. National Intelligence Council - The U.S. National Intelligence Council, operating under the guidance of CIA director George Tenet and chaired by Ambassador Robert Hutchings, is responsible for providing short- and middle-term strategic assessments to the U.S. government. Excerpts from the new, unclassified, experts' report: The outbreak of a new war between Israel and one or more Arab states, especially Syria [is possible]. Neither side would seek a war, but there will be continuing potential for an unintended outbreak of hostilities. A new war might entail use of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) weapons, possibly initiated by Syrian employment of chemical weapons. Another crushing Arab military defeat at the hands of Israel would exacerbate the disillusionment of Arabs with their ineffective regimes. Perhaps the death of Arafat - which is likely before 2020 - would set in motion events leading to a final, comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace settlement. Although an accord would be at least initially a "cold peace," if it were regarded as acceptable to the great majority of Palestinians it would mean the biggest change in regional discourse since Israel's creation. It also would be a moment of truth for several Arab regimes, which would lose their most effective distraction from their own shortcomings and major excuse for not facing up to needed reforms.
2003-12-17 00:00:00
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