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The Saudi Paradox

(Foreign Affairs) Michael Scott Doran - When an attack on a residential compound in Riyadh killed 17 people and wounded 122 in early November 2003, U.S. officials downplayed the significance of the incident for Saudi Arabian politics. "We have the utmost faith that the direction chosen for this nation by Crown Prince Abdullah, the political and economic reforms, will not be swayed by these horrible terrorists," said Deputy U.S. Secretary of State Richard Armitage. But if any such faith existed, it was quite misplaced. Abdullah's reforms were already being curtailed, the retrenchment having begun in the wake of a similar attack six months earlier. The Saudi state is a fragmented entity, divided between the fiefdoms of the royal family. Among the four or five most powerful princes, two stand out: Crown Prince Abdullah and his half-brother Prince Nayef, the interior minister. Relations between these two leaders are visibly tense. In the U.S., Abdullah cuts a higher profile. But at home in Saudi Arabia, Nayef, who controls the secret police, casts a longer and darker shadow. The Saudi monarchy functions as the intermediary between two distinct political communities: a Westernized elite that looks to Europe and the U.S. as models of political development, and a Wahhabi religious establishment. Abdullah tilts toward the liberal reformers and seeks a rapprochement with the U.S., whereas Nayef sides with the clerics and takes direction from an anti-American religious establishment that shares many goals with al-Qaeda.
2003-12-24 00:00:00
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